Statistics can be confronting at times. Unlike the malleable written word, there's no hiding behind cold, hard numbers. The latest Roy Morgan report on travel agents and holiday booking trends is a case in point.

Released last month, the report revealed some eye opening trends on the changing habits of Australian travellers. Of 21,000 people surveyed across Australia, a whopping 50% consulted a travel agent to book overseas travel, streets ahead of the 14% of respondents who used online-only travel booking websites. Almost 37% of those surveyed also called on a travel agent to research their holiday or hunt for travel ideas, trumping the internet which attracted only 34% of Australian travellers.

At first glance, the statistics are a vote of confidence for bricks and mortar agencies. But the research comes with a sting in the tail. While half of Australia's travellers are still consulting agents about trips abroad, the figures represent an 18% slump from 2007 when 68% of respondents used an agent to research overseas holidays. Conversely, the number of people turning to online-only travel websites has doubled to 14% over the same period.

The times are changingIt doesn't take a senior analyst to confirm that the habits of Australian travellers are rapidly shifting. The figures are a clear indication that online booking channels are gaining favour with travellers. Furthermore, the research poses an awkward question: do travel agencies need to reinvent themselves in order to survive?

Roy Morgan Research international director of tourism, travel and leisure Jane Ianniello believes they do. With so many traditionalists stuck in a time warp, she said it is possible some agencies will die if they don't bend with the prevailing breeze. In fact, she confirmed that some agencies are already falling short for that very reason.

But there are signs of evolution taking place. Take Flight Centre for instance, which has implemented an aggressive online strategy to grow its business. Not only is the agency chain leading the charge in terms of branding, with 64% of survey respondents having heard of the bricks and mortar agency at some point in the past 12 months, but almost 10% have used Flight Centre's services at least once in the last 12 months.

Harvey World Travel – which has been slower to push its online business – isn't far behind, with 60% of survey respondents familiar with its brand. But only 3% actually booked with the chain over the same period. Jetset is an even starker example, with a mere 11% of respondents having heard of the long-running brand, while only 1% of the sample actually booked with the agency over the last 12 months.

The consequences

Ianniello said the shift has been in the pipeline for years as customers find more confidence booking online. "People are turning away from bricks and mortar outlets as they get more confident about booking online. The same goes with banking, credit card usage and online shopping. There's a mind shift in how Australians approach everything online," she told Travel Weekly.

Australian Federation of Travel Agents (AFTA) chief executive Jayson Westbury agreed that the internet is changing how agencies operate in today's environment, but he doesn't see this as a death knell for traditional agencies. "To suggest there's no future for bricks and mortar agencies is simply not true. There are about 600 jobs for travel agents at the moment on seek.com, and most agencies are reporting record profits," he said.

With some of the major tourism players such as Singapore Airlines and Carnival Cruises also selling upwards of 80% of their bookings via travel agents, he questioned the accuracy of the research altogether. "This research is completely inconsistent with the industry's turnover. If we had an 18% drop in the use of travel agents, we would be in crisis mode. I would be out of a job," he said. "I don't give this report any weight. It's complete shit."

 The online battle

Flight Centre was equally surprised by the findings, with head of investor relations Haydn Long noting that they don't align with the agency's booking trends. He agreed customers are increasingly heading online, but stressed that leisure sales at Australian agencies have also increased over the past 12 months. "We firmly believe that agents play a key role in both the domestic and international booking process and expect that to continue to be the case," he said.

However, TravelManagers chairman and former Harvey World Travel managing director Barry Mayo believes the Roy Morgan report is a fair indication of the current state of play for Australian agencies. With most travel providers now offering extremely competitive online fares, he said it is not surprising that bricks and mortar agencies are losing favour. And with the trend set to continue, he asserted that the pressure is now on traditional agencies to shake up their business model. "TravelManagers is currently sheltered from the impact of online sales in that its business model has been born out of the internet," he said. "There will still be a place for traditional travel agents but I suspect this will eventuate in fewer retail outlets with future growth being enabled by enhanced technology and reduced cost of sale."

Regardless of what the statistics say, experts agree that agencies need to embrace online booking processes to keep above water. Westbury said it is a "no brainer" that agents adopt multi-channelled offers to their platforms, while Mayo believes the key to success lies in offering affordable shopping channels in online and retail formats.

What is patently clear is that consumers will continue to embrace online booking platforms. It's how agencies prepare for the change that matters.