Comment: Are the cruise boom years over?
So, just a little more than 300,000 to go before the cruise industry can celebrate its 2020 target of attracting one million Australian cruisers.
With the number of people taking to the high seas doubling in four years, representing annual growth of 20%, it would seem a foregone conclusion the industry will hit that milestone.
Yet figures released this week by the Cruise Lines International Association Australasia showed a sharp growth slowdown in 2012.
In 2011, growth soared a remarkable 34% over 2010 and hitting those highs for a second successive year was never on the cards.
But I’d be surprised if the cruise industry was not privately just a little disappointed with the 11% increase reported by CLIA on Monday.
Double digit growth is a strong performance, no one doubts that, and it may seem strange to be questioning such a result.
But I have this nagging feeling it may not be plain sailing Рplease excuse the terrible clichéd pun that really deserves some form of disciplinary action Рfor the industry here on in.
Industry leaders reckon they can achieve 10% growth this year. Maybe they will, but that is far from a certainty. It was also suggested by Carnival Australia chief executive Ann Sherry that, over time, the local market can achieve a penetration rate of 10%.
The current level of penetration is 3%, not too far behind the 3.3% in the US – the most mature cruise market in the world. There is nothing wrong with setting your sights high, but 10% penetration? That’s ambitious.
The argument is that unlike the majority of the US population, most of us here in Australia live near the coast and are therefore more predisposed to cruising. I’m not sure I buy that. Living near a mountain range does not make you a mountaineer.
What the cruise industry needs to acknowledge and appreciate is that cruising does not appeal to the majority of people, just as adventure tourism does not appeal to all and sundry.
P&O’s landlubber’s campaign was clever in its attempt to dispel certain myths associated with cruising. Nevertheless, I know plenty of people – and I mean plenty – who just do not want to board a cruise ship, no matter what case for cruising is placed in front of them.
Growth will continue, there is little question about that, but it might just start to plateau quicker than expected.
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