AI may soon be used to predict airline delays
Imagine a world where airline delays were predicted in advance.
Agents could rearrange plans for travellers while they are still in the sky, not only saving time but creating a massive value add.
According to Stephane Cheikh, Artificial Intelligence Program Director at SITA, the answer to predicting these delays may well be AI.
Disruption is one of the main issues facing the air transport industry.
We’ve all experienced or heard about disruption causing delays, often with huge impacts on passengers, cargo and operations throughout the rest of the day.
Let me put it into perspective: recent figures show average flight delay times at 51 minutes. Delays could be costing the air transport industry as much as $25 billion a year.
IATA estimates an average on-time performance of 76 per cent for the 26 million flights globally each year. Without action, and given the pressures of growth in air travel, problems will only worsen.
That’s why, in their search for operational excellence, both airlines and airports are seeking more control and predictability.
From my own experience, and in recent collaborations with SITA air transport customers, it’s clear that Artificial intelligence (AI) promises a new way forward.
AI embraces the disciplines of Machine Learning, Machine Vision, Natural Language Processing, and Robotics. It’s attracting great interest from airlines and airports. According to SITA’s 2018 Air Transport Insights research, AI is one of the emerging technologies offering future strategic and operational benefits.
The Insights research shows that 66 per cent of airlines are implementing or planning predictive analytics capabilities by 2021.
In the meantime, 79 per cent of airports are using or planning to use AI for predictive analysis to improve operational efficiency (e.g. task automation) by that same year.
With all eyes are on the potential of AI, I can see several very promising signs, based on SITA’s co-developments and experience with customers in the use of AI for predicting flight arrival times. And we are only at the very beginning.
Of course, in predicting flight times, challenges do exist, not least taking account of the multiple stakeholders in the equation. Having said that, for airlines, many factors are under their control. It might surprise you to learn, for example, that fewer than 5 per cent of flight delays are down to extreme weather (see chart).
The main issue in delays is turnaround time. If fueling, catering or cleaning over-run for whatever reason, then flights will continue to be late from thereon in, a headache for the airline and the airport.
Delay causes by year in the US (2008-2017)
Sita is working closely with a major airport in APAC, which is a great example of pioneering work in AI and predictive disruption. Here we’ve shown that AI can draw valuable insights from masses of historical data accumulated from flights and delays coupled with real-time information.
The airport has a complex network involving over 200 organizations. It can get as low as a 30-minute update time on an arrival. Any insight the airport can get into flight arrival times to plan resources is invaluable. Working closely with the airport, we’ve developed the ability to accurately predict arrival times disruption, through a predictive model using AI and data analytics.
Applying Machine Learning to historical and real-time data, the airport can accurately predict flight arrivals two to four hours out.
This data can be used to plan resources and pre-empt the impact on passengers, some of whom may not make a connecting flight. The next step is to improve the accuracy and predictions, especially for shorter flight durations.
Right now, prediction requires the experience of humans to make decisions, because we must assess a whole list of factors, from ATC, maintenance and crew connections to ground handling and scheduling integrity. That’s why I use the words ‘collaborative intelligence’ as we need a combination of human and AI to improve efficiencies.
AI can help humans look at passenger revenue and value, for example, and quickly re-book high revenue and value individuals first if a flight is cancelled. By accelerating historical data value analysis using AI, we can create a list according to priority – at speeds and with levels of accuracy simply impossible by humans.
Then there’s the potential of using AI (Machine Vision, aka Computer Vision) to visually track and monitor all the stakeholders around the aircraft to proactively manage turnaround, and constantly improve coordination and efficiencies. As another focus area for SITA, I can see this delivering far better visibility of aircraft turnaround, helping to identify issues before they happen and driving significantly better on-time performance.
So the future for airlines and airports is undoubtedly getting smarter. AI is starting to link the players and the processes across the passenger journey, providing a smart way of managing an increasingly complex ecosystem. It’s clear to me that AI is taking us one step closer to operational excellence.
This article is an edited version of a blog post written by Stephane Cheikh, Artificial Intelligence Program Director at SITA that first appeared on SITA’s blog. Read the full version here.
Latest News
Linkd appoints Carolyn Nightingale and Lawson Dibb to new roles
Linkd Tourism sings praises of Carolyn Nightingale and dubs Lawson Dibb as Kyushu Tourism Office guru.
Celebrity Ascent makes its European debut
Choosing to cruise this northern summer? Celebrity Ascent promises to raise the bar.
NCL opens sales for Norwegian Sun’s APAC debut, announces 14 new voyages
It was to be 13 new voyages we heard, but given the numbers unlucky nature, an extra had to be thought up.
Inside Travel Group appoints Tom Welland Global Trade Marketing Manager
Heidi's Tom Welland heads to Inside Travel Group as its new Global Trade Marketing Manager.
Federal Government rolls out $1.4m program to promote careers in tourism across regional NSW
The Government taking a break from some of its pointier issues with some work in our incredible industry!
Australian visitors to South Korea surge
Japanned out? Aussies are adding South Korea to their bucket list.
G Adventures celebrates Dr. Jane Goodall’s 90th with new wildlife-focused trips
Fancy yourself as a bit of a conservationist? Put your skills to the test on the Jane Goodall collection.
Virgin Australia says suspended flights to Bali result of Boeing MAX delays
If only we had a company like Boeing to blame our mistakes on. Any takers? Get in touch!
Airline Review: Singapore Airlines Business Class – A380-800
The iconic Singapore Airlines' A380-800 is in a class of its own - business class that is.
South African Airways to relaunch Joburg – Perth flights as economic ties strengthen
Bringing two of the world's most distinctive accents closer together, for good or for bad is yet to be determined.
My journey: Before becoming a travel agent I was… a palliative care nurse
Australind Travel & Cruise, Travellers Choice member Saibra Twigg reveals her life as paediatric nurse then to palliative care before a career leap to travel agent. How did you become a palliative care nurse? ST I went straight from school in nursing and initially specialised in paediatrics, working at Perth’s Princess Margaret Hospital for Children. […]
Emirates unveils future plans with new hub at Al Maktoum International Airport
We've also been looking into our future. It involves plenty of famils, we hope.
Australia fails to make top 10 destination list for American travellers
Australia's top cities have failed to make the grade with American travellers this northern summer, with no local city in the top.
APT Launches 2025 Asia Adventures
APT has launched its Asia Adventures for 2025, including new luxury holidays in India, Sri Lanka and Japan. Five new tours lead guests to the highlights of India, including a seven-night cruise along the rarely travelled Lower Ganges aboard the Ganges Voyager. Further south, Sri Lanka’s greatest destinations are revealed on a new 15-day Land […]
ANZAC Battlefield travel on the 2025 bucketlist
As Anzac Day dawns, agents prepare for a surge in bookings for the 110th anniversary of the Anzac Cove landings.
Former Channel 9 Getaway host and founder of TRIBE Jules Lund to speak at Travel DAZE
From blond-tipped travel reporter to Travel DAZE speaker, Jules Lund cuts through the BS.
HX’s Roald Amundsen finds aliens in the Antarctic
Forget whales, HX's MS Roald Amundsen captures aliens in the Antarctic - and they're not pretty.
Mayhem in France as 70% of flights face cancellation
I mean it wouldn't be France if there wasn't at least one strike.
Etihad Airways launches double-decker service with world’s only in-air three-room suite
We imagine falling asleep in the three-room suite is superior to falling asleep on your neighbour's shoulder.
Norwegian Cruise Line launches 2024 Europe travel season
Europe certainly has a lot of ports. Its time for Australia to up its game.
“The power of travel for positive change” – Intrepid’s Jenny Gray hails controversial all-women Saudi Arabia trip
There is an awful lot to love about this tour from Intrepid. Where do we sign up?
Princess names the Sun, unveils Sanctuary Collection + Star Princess to Alaska in ’26
A huge bottle of Veuve was smashed into the side of the ship to make things official. So no, we couldn't snag a glass.
Collette special offers across peak northern summer season
If you are craving a trip to Europe then grab this deal with both of your grubby hands.
Air India and All Nippon codeshare between the two countries
Here at TW we agreed that the photo would have worked better if they had swapped planes.
A&K offers minimum 18 weeks paid parental leave
Contrary to what the photo suggests this benefit is only applicable for humans. Back to work Mrs Jumbo.
NH Hotel Group rebrands as Minor Hotels Europe & Americas
Hang around the bends of the hotels. We imagine they will be full of a lot of branded content.
Scenic Eclipse II – the business of creating unforgettable life-changing memories
These cruise brothers from another mother offer a view of cruising on Scenic Eclipse II that is poles apart.
MSC builds new hospital ship with Mercy Ships
If you want to read a story that puts a smile on your face then this is the one for you.
“I peed on myself watching this” – Social media users squirm at Royal Caribbean’s Harmony of The Seas 55ft dive video
TW is not responsible for any involuntary actions your body might have after watching this video.
FLIGHT REVIEW: Qantas Boeing 787 Dreamliner business class
The real bonus is you're unlikely to be around screaming children. Hoorah!
Traveltek offers travel agents new rapid deploy cruise website
As always, if you have any issue with the platform, just turn it off and on again.
Experience whale watching & classical music at the Australian Festival of Chamber Music in Townsville
Disappointedly, the whales do not start singing in tune with the orchestra. Opportunity missed.
Fond, very Fond. London hotel famed for James Bond link adds ‘Classic Comforts’ lunch menu
James Bond author Ian Fleming was so fond if this hotel, it inspired the legendary phrase ‘shaken, not stirred’.
What sets Eclipse Travel apart with Africa expert Hilary Dubyk: Travel Weekly TV
If you want to know more about Africa, then Hilary Dubyk is your person.
Surge in Australians visiting Japan
Feel like all of your friends have just returned from Europe? Now it's Japan.
Seabourn announces Western Kimberley Traditional Owners as Godparents of Seabourn Pursuit
Seabourn has named Western Kimberley Traditional Owners, the Wunambal Gaambera, as Godparents of the ultra-luxury purpose-built Seabourn Pursuit. It is the first cruise line to appoint Traditional Owners as godparents of a ship. Seabourn Pursuit embarks on its inaugural season in the Kimberley region this June. The naming ceremony will take place on Seabourn Pursuit’s […]