Aviation

CAPA predicts 60 per cent recovery in Australia’s domestic capacity by Christmas

One of the travel industry’s leading intelligence agencies projects domestic air capacity could reach 60 per cent of last year’s volume by mid-December.

Based on a combination of analysis of government statements, airline projections and underlying demand, CAPA’s ‘Airline Capacity Model’ projects a slow, phased recovery in domestic air capacity in Australia through the remainder of 2020.

Reaching 37 per cent of last year’s volume by early July, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has foreshadowed a return to intra-state travel under the federal government’s three-phase plan to ease coronavirus restrictions.

The plan, designed to revive the domestic economy, leaves the timing for the re-establishment of travel to the states, the market intelligence agency said.

“Australia is one of the best-positioned countries globally to suppress the first wave of COVID-19 infection,” CAPA chairman emeritus Peter Harbison said.

“If this continues and we avoid a second outbreak, the Australian domestic air market could see some signs of life by mid-year and a steady improvement by Christmas.

“However, we don’t expect to see 2019 levels of domestic flying reached again this year. International will be hit harder and potentially take multiple years to recover.”

CAPA’s breakdown of domestic seat capacity through the COVID-19 pandemic

CAPA projects domestic capacity to reach 49 per cent of 2019 levels by the October school holidays and 60 per cent by mid-December 2020.

It also expects a supply-led return over the coming three months as airlines tempt passengers back to the air with low fares while “emphasising enhanced health and safety precautions”.

“As demand rebuilds, supply (capacity and route network) will be adjusted to optimise yields and the market will steadily recover,” the agency said.

International markets are, however, unlikely to recover and the CAPA Airline Capacity Model sees international air capacity (seat numbers) still down by 92 per cent year-on-year in July, by 86 per cent in October and by 85 per cent in December.

The potential trans-Tasman ‘travel bubble’ with New Zealand has been factored into the CAPA Model from August, with some Pacific Islands linkages in time for the Christmas and New Year holidays.


Featured image: iStock/stellalevi

SEE WHAT PEOPLE ARE SAYING

Leave a Reply

Tourism

PATA announces new chair and executive board

The Pacific Asia Travel Association has revealed its new-look board in a very Brady Bunch-esque way.

Share

CommentComments

Aviation

Virgin Australia directors resign in droves

by Huntley Mitchell

Bain Capital is wiping the slate clean at Virgin, with many more departures announced.

Share

CommentComments

Hotels

RIP Charli: Aussie hotel’s resident puppy mauled to death

We don’t enjoy reporting this kind of news on Travel Weekly, so we’ll hold nothing against you if you decide to skip over it.

Share

CommentComments

Destinations

Outgoing Tourism Fiji CEO snares top role at Visit Sunshine Coast

Matt Stoeckel will swap one idyllic destination for another at the end of the year, with the outgoing Tourism Fiji boss to say ‘bula’ to the Sunshine Coast.

Share

CommentComments

Events

Travel DAZE 2020 agenda revealed!

With just one week to go until Travel DAZE 2020 kicks off, get ready to block out time in your diary so you can tune in to all of our fabulous speakers!

Share

CommentComments

Technology

Sabre and Google unveil industry-first AI travel platform

This new platform is being dubbed an industry first by Sabre and Google, and rather than fact check this claim, we’re just going to take their word for it.

Share

CommentComments

Destinations

Tourism bodies call for $1.3bn lifeline for Victoria’s devastated visitor economy

It’s desperate times for Victoria’s tourism industry, and two industry bodies are pleading for help before it gets worse.

Share

CommentComments

Aviation

Australia to increase weekly cap on international arrivals, as National Cabinet mulls alternative quarantine options

ScoMo fronted the media on Friday arvo to provide a welcome update for stranded Aussies abroad, thankfully sans his Cronulla Sharks cap hat.

Share

CommentComments

Wholesalers

Intrepid becomes first tour operator with verified, science-based targets

What does that mean, you might ask? Well… we’re not really sure, but this press release does a great job of explaining it.

Share

CommentComments

Cruise

Pacific Adventure and Pacific Encounter to join P&O’s Aussie fleet in first half of 2021

Sture Myrmell has been spotted doing the happy dance in celebration of this encouraging cruise announcement.

Share

CommentComments

Travel Agents

Corporate Travel Management raises remaining $113m needed for US acquisition

Were you one of those who snapped up some new shares in CTM? Well, give yourself a pat on the back for your role in this achievement.

Share

CommentComments

Aviation

WATCH: Transport Workers’ Union stages ‘alternative’ Qantas AGM, complete with fake Alan Joyce

And by fake Alan Joyce, we mean an unidentified man putting on a very thick Irish accent and coming up with any excuse to say “tink” instead of “think”.

Share

CommentComments